What are my chances of contracting HIV in this particular situation?

At 11 days after potential exposure I was tested through Quest Diagnostics via blood and urine (full STD panel). The HIV portion of the test was a NAT PCR test. Everything came back negative or 'no reaction'.

At 15 days I had another full STD panel done at my doctor's office, again with a NAT PCR for the HIV test and also the 4th Gen ab/ag test. Everything came back negative.

I have read slightly differing information online regarding window periods and the confidence level of the tests at different times. The CDC says 10-33 days for the NAT PCR to be highly accurate and 1 month for the 4th Gen. Other organizations will say that the CDC guidelines are fairly conservative, and begin trusting NAT PCR results even after 9 days, this includes my State Dept of Health.

Should these negative NAT PCR tests at 11 days and 15 days put my mind at ease? What level of accuracy/confidence can be attributed to these?

My plan is to do a full panel again at 1 month and 3 months just to be thorough, although I don't even know if it's necessary after the 30 day mark.

Thank you for your insight.

To elaborate on my comment above-

1.  Most commercial sex workers do not have STIs, including HIV.

2.  Most single unprotected exposures to infected partners do not result in infection.  In your case you apparently used a condom throughout the encounter which did not break.  If so, this provides virtually complete protection against most STIs including HIV.  FYI, if your condom appeared intact following completion of sex, it was- condoms do not leak a little- when they fail they break wide open.

3.  Your tests for the most common STIs such as gonorrhea and chlamydia will have provided conclusive results when performed more than 3-5 days after an exposure.  You have have negative tests twice.  Please believe them, they do not need to be repeated.

4.  NAATs tests for HIV are not the most widely used tests for detection of HIV (because of expense) but hey are the tests which become positive first.  Typically NAAT tests for HIV taken any time more than 11 days after an exposure are considered conclusive.  We have never heard or seen a patient/client in whom tests negative after 11 days went on to become positive.  You have had two negative NAAT tests.  While some experts would suggest a follow-up 4th generation, combination HIV antigen/antibody test at 6 weeks, this is probably overkill.  If I were you I would not bother further HIV testing related to the encounter you describe.

I hope this information is helpful.  I would not be at all worried, would not hesitate to have unprotected sex with my regular partner and would not bother with further testing if I were you.  EWH

There's so much information out there that I just don't know what to believe. That's why I'm here. I understand I've used up my two follow-up questions here, so thanks again for shedding some light on these topics and take care.

To be clear- IF you were infected with HIV, by day 11 there will almost always be NAAT detectable HIV present.

I didn't realize I had one more post, I'll take advantage of that if you don't mind.

This is really for my own education. Before the encounter I had shaved some pubic hair at the base of my penis. There was no blood, cuts, razorburn, or anything like that. Did that increase my risk, even though there were no cuts? I read about 'microtears' and how that can increase risk, but I also read that it would have to be a deep cut for it to be an issue, which it was not. I also read that once blood or vaginal fluid leaves the body the HIV virus essentially dies because it's so fragile. Again, conflicting information on the Internet.

Thanks again for all your insight and take care.

We get many questions about shaving.  There are no scientific data that having shaved your pubic area which is then exposed to infectious secretions represents a meaningful risk for HIV.  You are correct  than once HIV is outside the body, exposed to the environment it becomes non-infectious.  The business of "microtears" is handwaving.  Remember, sex is about friction- I suppose that with friction (which is, after all, abrasion) there might be a theoretical increase in risk but realistically it is not an issue.  

Yes, persons can certainly acquire HSV and not know it- in all likelihood some of these persons have mild outbreaks/lesions which are overlooked or not noticed.  At the same time, a small proportion of persons appear to also acquire HSV without developing an initial outbreak.  This realistically is just not something to worry a lot about.  

I urge you to continue to practice condom protected sex but not too worry about these largely theoretical concerns such as "microtears", shaving, or infection in the absence of symptoms following any single encounter.  Also, I urge you to stay of the internet and all of it's misleading statements.

This completes this thread which will now be closed.  EWH