[Question #13491] Looking for opinion on statistic possibility

 
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2 days ago
Looking for help on the following -
Unprotected insertive vaginal intercourse with female of unknown status.
Uncurcumsized male.
PEP started approx 25 hours post exposure.
What is the likelihood statistically of infection?
What is your suggested text regime once PEP completed?
Thank you.

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Edward W. Hook M.D.
2 days ago
Welcome back to the Forum.  Is this another exposure since your interactions with Dr. Handsfield two weeks ago.?

The risk of infection from this exposure was very low even before you opted to take PEP.  Having started PEP, you will now need to wait another 4-6 weeks AFTER completion of PEP before you will be able to reliably prove that you were not infected.  Less than 1% of women in North America have HIV and of those with infection, most are on treatment and non-infectious.  If your partner had untreated HIV, the risk of infection from a single episode of unprotected vaginal intercourse is les that 1 in 2500.  Thus, before starting PEP there was a more than 99.995% change you would NOT get HIV.  

You can test and expect conclusive results from a 4th generation HIV test 30-45 days AFTER completion of PEP.  

EWH
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1 days ago
Thanks for this.
Yes, new exposure.
Is non-circumcised the same 1/2500 statistic? I have seen various data on this.
With 1/2500 being the quoted stat, what would you say the statistical chances of positive test after PEP completion?
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Edward W. Hook M.D.
1 days ago
Being uncircumcised makes little meaningful difference.

See above.  As noted there is a more than 99.995% likelihood you will not be infected. EWH
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