[Question #311] Follow Up on Cat Scratch and HIV Risk
111 months ago
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111 months ago
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Edward W. Hook M.D.
111 months ago
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111 months ago
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111 months ago
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Dear Dr. Hook,
In case you were curious, here is the math behind the incident I encountered:
Here is how it all breaks down with probabilities... Take 23/10,000 (CDC estimate of HIV transmission from a needle stick⦠A cat claw would be significantly less I believe).... Multiply that by 2/18 (chance of having the same cat claw poke me in the two spots on my arm and wrist... Cats have 18 claws)... Multiply that by 1/10 (Chances of a transmission after using PEP, which assumes that PEP is 90% effective if taken in a very urgent manner).... Multiply that with 6/100 (Approximate chances of transmission from my friend who was on ART therapy with a very low viral load)... Multiply that by 3/100 (Approximate likelihood of HIV transmission with the drying of HIV fluids according to the CDC)... And finally, multiply that by 1.7/100 (This is the sensitivity of the Aptima HIV PCR RNA test)... You get approximately 1/1,278,772,378. Again... These are all approximations based on CDC information and content found on Mayo Clinic and other sites. Just thought you'd find this interesting.
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Edward W. Hook M.D.
111 months ago
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111 months ago
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![]() |
Edward W. Hook M.D.
110 months ago
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